##  [A Strong Mitigation Scenario Maintains Climate Neutrality of Northern Peatlands](/resource/strong-mitigation-scenario-maintains-climate-neutrality-northern-peatlands) 

Organization

[University Paris-Saclay](/organization/university-paris-saclay)

[Zhejiang University](/organization/zhejiang-university)

[University of Oslo](/organization/university-oslo)

[Max Planck Institute for Meteorology](/organization/max-planck-institute-meteorology)

[Peking University](/organization/peking-university)

[University of Bern](/organization/university-bern)

[Lund University](/organization/lund-university)

[University of Montana](/organization/university-montana)

[University of Utah](/organization/university-utah)

[University of Exeter](/organization/university-exeter)

[International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis](/organization/international-institute-applied-systems-analysis)

[University of Leeds](/organization/university-leeds)

[University of Leicester](/organization/university-leicester)

[Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research](/organization/swiss-federal-research-institute-forest-snow-and-landscape-research)

[Stockholm University](/organization/stockholm-university)

[University of Copenhagen](/organization/university-copenhagen)

[Natural Resources Institute Finland](/organization/natural-resources-institute-finland)

 

 

Resource Type

[Peer reviewed article](/taxonomy/term/37)

 

 

Author(s)

Chunjing Qiu

Philippe Ciais

Dan Zhu

Bertrand Guenet

Jinfeng Chang

Nitin Chaudhary

Thomas Kleinen

XinYu Li

Jurek Müller

Yi Xi

Wenxin Zhang

Ashley Ballantyne

Simon Brewer

Victor Brovkin

Dan Charman

Adrian Gustafson

Angela Gallego-Sala

Thomas Gasser

Joseph Holden

Fortunat Joos

Min Jung Kwon

Ronny Lauerwald

Paul Miller

Shushi Peng

Susan Page

Benjamin Smith

Benjamin Stocker

Britta Sannel

Elodie Salmon

Guy Schurgers

Narasinha Shurpali

David Wårlind

Sebastian Westermann

 

 

Original Authors

Chunjing Qiu

Philippe Ciais

Dan Zhu

Bertrand Guenet

Jinfeng Chang

Nitin Chaudhary

Thomas Kleinen

XinYu Li

Jurek Müller

Yi Xi

Wenxin Zhang

Ashley Ballantyne

Simon Brewer

Victor Brovkin

Dan Charman

Adrian Gustafson

Angela Gallego-Sala

Thomas Gasser

Joseph Holden

Fortunat Joos

Min Jung Kwon

Ronny Lauerwald

Paul Miller

Shushi Peng

Susan Page

Benjamin Smith

Benjamin Stocker

Britta Sannel

Elodie Salmon

Guy Schurgers

Narasinha Shurpali

David Wårlind

Sebastian Westermann

 

 

Contacts

[Chunjing Qiu](/contact/chunjing-qiu)

 

 

Resource Date:

January

2022

 

 

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.