Slowing Down Wolves to Protect Boreal Caribou Populations: A Spatial Simulation Model of Linear Feature Restoration

Authors
Matthias Spangenberg
Robert Serrouya
Melanie Dickie
Craig Demars
Theo Michelot
Stan Boutin
Meike Wittmann
Resource Date:
2019
Page Length
17 pp

In Canada, boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are declining in numbers, in part due to increased predation by wolves (Canis lupus). One management option to reduce wolf–caribou interactions and thus protect caribou is to remove man-made linear features (LFs), structures such as roads, trails, and cut lines, which are used by wolves as traveling paths. Linear features increase wolf traveling speed and could additionally facilitate wolf entry into caribou habitat. Our goal was to quantify the expected effect of LF removal on caribou mortality and investigate whether this LF restoration could be a sufficient measure to stop caribou declines. We simulated the effects of LF restoration on caribou adult and calf survival in spatially explicit wolf–caribou encounter models. The models were parameterized using Global Positioning System (GPS) data, hidden Markov models (HMMs), and information from the published literature. Complete LF restoration decreased wolf traveling speed and thus reduced caribou mortality. The proportional reduction in adult caribou mortality ranged from 10 to 25% of its original value, and the proportional reduction in calf mortality ranged from 8 to 23%, depending on caribou density, number of wolf packs, kill probability given an encounter, and detection distance of wolves for caribou.

Given that LF restoration as a single measure is unlikely to stop boreal caribou populations from declining, we used a case example to illustrate how LF restoration could make a small contribution in a portfolio of short-term and long-term management options to reduce wolf predation on caribou.