Video - Alberta’s Natural Subregions under a Changing Climate: Past, Present and Future

Authors
Rick Schneider
Resource Date:
2013

The Natural Regions and Subregions classification represents the state-of-the-art in ecological land classification in Alberta. However, as a consequence of climate change, current landscape patterns are unlikely to persist in the future. My presentation will focus on the types of ecological changes expected to occur as the climate warms. At a minimum, temperatures in Alberta are expected to increase by 2°C over the next hundred years; all available global climate models predict this outcome. In response, Alberta’s ecosystems are projected to shift northward: for example, the parkland landscape around Edmonton will transition to resemble the grassland landscape around Calgary. At the upper end, under a high global greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the climate models predict drier conditions and temperature increases of up to 6.5°C, which could result in the near-complete loss of the boreal forest from northern Alberta. Understanding how Alberta’s Natural Regions are likely to change in the future is directly relevant to land use planning initiatives, such as forest management, that are linked to the current extent and distribution of these regions.