Wildfire Risk to Caribou Conservation Projects in Northeastern Alberta

Authors
Chris Stockdale
Quinn Barber
Marc-André Parisien
Contacts
Resource Date:
April
2018
Page Length
56

The boreal forests of Alberta have dense networks of seismic exploration lines which have been shown to contribute significantly to the decline in woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations throughout the region due to the effects they have on increasing predation risk to caribou. In order to improve habitat quality for caribou and to reduce predation on caribou by wolves, oil-and-gas companies are investing significant resources in the restoration of many of these seismic lines in key areas. Wildfire is a common natural disturbance throughout northern Alberta and is very likely to increase in frequency and severity under climate change. Fires that occur in the boreal forest are capable of eliminating hundreds of thousands of hectares of woodland caribou habitat in a single event, and could potentially erase all of the forests in which these seismic restoration projects are occurring.

In order to support sound conservation decisions and to minimize the wildfire risk to habitat restoration investments it is important to know what the likelihood of a wildfire occurring at every point on the landscape, and what mitigation measures would be the most effective to minimize this hazard. There is also substantial interest in understanding how climate change may affect the wildfire probability of the landscape.

To address this question, this report comprises a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment of the landscape that contains major caribou restoration and recovery initiatives in north-eastern Alberta. This project was designed to use the Burn-P3 model to determine the burn probability across the COSIA management zone, and investigate the following:

A) What is the wildfire risk to the restored seismic line areas within the Cold Lake Caribou Range?

B) Where are the best places on the landscape to invest in caribou conservation efforts with respect to reducing wildfire risk?

C) Do intensive management zones designed to reduce vegetation flammability and potential ignitions reduce the wildfire risk, and if so, to what extent?

D) How will climate change affect the burn probability of the landscape?

A coarse-scale baseline burn probability assessment was conducted for the oil-sands lease areas of the landscape (COSIA area) and a finer-scale assessment of the Cold Lake Caribou Range area.