Climate Change Vulnerability of Alberta’s Terrestrial Biodiversity: A Preliminary Assessment

This report provides a broad overview of how Alberta species are likely to be affected by climate change by the 2050s. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess the relative vulnerability to climate change of 173 Alberta amphibian, bird, insect, mammal and vascular plant species.
Climate change vulnerability is the integration of a) exposure to expected climate change, b) inherent sensitivity of a species to altered climate, and c) the capacity of a species to adapt to possible change. We calculated exposure based on climate change projections calculated as the mean of 16 well-accepted global circulation models. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity were based on 24 factors derived from literature review, historical climate analysis and species distribution modeling.  Exposure and sensitivity were integrated into a vulnerability score for each species.
For each species assessed, sensitivity and exposure scores, relevant literature and results are available at http://www.biodiversityandclimate.abmi.ca/vulnerability-assessments/.
Amphibians were consistently found to be the taxonomic group having the greatest vulnerability to climate change of the six taxonomic groups assessed. Amphibians are vulnerable to climate change largely as a result of anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, narrow thermal and hydrological niches, and dependence on specific moisture conditions. Birds are the least vulnerable taxonomic group largely as a result of their excellent dispersal abilities. Comparisons among Natural Regions are more complex, however, with no distinct pattern emerging.
The CCVI does not explicitly incorporate species-at-risk criteria in its analysis, but nevertheless, vulnerability is highly correlated with at-risk status. This may be partly attributable to species-at-risk generally having small range sizes. Of the 173 species assessed, most can be expected to expand or shift their ranges in response to climate change, if suitable habitat exists. Amphibians and reptiles are most likely to have difficulty in shifting their ranges as a result of dispersal barriers. Population movements by many vascular plants are limited primarily by poor dispersal ability.
The CCVI provides a useful overview of the vulnerability of Alberta species to climate change, but it does not provide the complete picture. One of the major uncertainties not addressed by the CCVI is the availability of suitable habitat in the future as species move and habitats change.
The analysis points to the importance of including climate change into management of species at risk, addressing barriers to dispersal, long-term monitoring of species distribution and abundance, and more detailed vulnerability analysis including prediction of potential future habitat