Climate change mitigation through woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) habitat restoration in British Columbia

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant global threat, requiring rapid and effective mitigation strategies to limit future warming. Tree planting is a commonly proposed and readily implementable natural climate solution. It is also a vital component of habitat restoration for the threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus). There is potential for the goals of caribou conservation and carbon sequestration to be combined for co-benefits. We examine this opportunity by estimating the carbon sequestration impacts of tree planting in woodland caribou range in British Columbia (BC), Canada. To do so, we couple Landsat-derived datasets with Physiological Processes Predicting Growth, a process-based model of forest growth. We compare the sequestration impacts of planting informed by woodland caribou habitat needs to planting for maximum carbon sequestration under multiple future climate scenarios including shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP) 2, representing ∼2.7 °C warming, and SSP5, representing ∼4.4 °C warming. Trees were modelled as planted in 2025. Province-wide by 2100, planting for maximum-carbon sequestration averaged 1062 Mg CO₂ · ha⁻¹ planted, while planting for caribou habitat resulted in an average of 930 Mg CO₂ · ha⁻¹ planted, a reduction of 12%. We found that relative sequestration between herds remained similar across warming scenarios and that, for most ecotypes, sequestration increased from 5% to 7% between the coldest (∼2.7 °C warming) and warmest (∼4.4 °C warming) scenario. Variability in the relative sequestration impacts of planting strategies was observed between herds, highlighting the importance of spatially-explicit, herd-level analysis of future forest growth when planning restoration activities. Our findings indicate a large potential for co-benefits between carbon sequestration and woodland caribou habitat restoration across BC in all warming scenarios modelled. They also underscore the value of process-based forest growth models in evaluating the carbon implications of tree planting and habitat restoration across large areas under a changing climate.