Ferruginous Hawk Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Alberta

The Ferruginous Hawk (FEHA) is a specialized, open-country buteo limited to grassland and shrub-steppe environments. The Alberta population has declined precipitously since the early 1990s leading to the species being listed as Endangered under the Alberta Wildlife Act. The Alberta Ferruginous Hawk Recovery Plan 2009 – 2014 identifies climate change as a factor potentially threatening the recovery of the species in Alberta. This report is intended to supplement the provincial Recovery Plan by examining in detail the scope and scale of past and projected changes in climate within the Alberta range of the FEHA, by summarizing current knowledge of the potential effects of climate change on FEHAs, and by exploring the adaptive responses that might be undertaken to allow FEHAs to adapt to a changing climate.
Alberta's climate has been changing rapidly in the recent past with mean annual temperature in the southern part of the province increasing by 0.3°C per decade over the past 30 years. The pace of change is expected to accelerate with temperatures being as much as 2.7°C warmer by the 2050s. The extra energy pumped into the atmosphere by temperature increases will alter precipitation patterns and intensify extremes in temperature, rainfall and wind. All of these factors can be expected to affect the population status of FEHAs.
Contrary to expectations, there is little evidence to suggest average or extreme weather parameters have changed significantly in the Alberta range of the FEHA during the critical spring and summer nesting period. Several published studies and analyses by the authors suggest that prairie summers have not changed in recent decades with respect to mean or extreme temperature, precipitation and wind speed. This appears to be an anomaly relative to other seasons and areas of the Province.  However, there is strong consensus over numerous studies that future mean 
temperature and extreme temperature, rainfall, drought, and wind events will all increase dramatically in the future.
The set of climatic conditions currently experienced by FEHAs in Alberta is likely to expand in northwards. The Grassland Region is expected to expand northwards resulting in a reduction in trees and shrubs and a replacement of mid-grasses by short-grasses. Some aspects of these ecological changes are likely to benefit FEHAs and others to present challenges.
Increases in mean temperature, drought, and extreme precipitation, rainfall and wind events may result in changes in disease incidence, breeding asynchrony, increased nestling mortality from exposure and nest collapse, and changes in prey numbers and hunting success all of which have documented or potential population consequences.
Recommendations for mitigating these threats are hampered by inadequate information suggesting that considerably more monitoring and research is required to focus on better understanding the effects of climate change on Richardson's ground squirrels, availability of FEHA nesting substrates, FEHA migration behaviour, breeding chronology and success, and range expansion. The most immediate concrete action that could be undertaken is to enhance the ability of existing nests to withstand extreme weather events and to provide additional weather resistant nesting opportunities