Caribou Calculations: Modelling Uncertainty for Decisive Action

Resource Date:
2025

Boreal caribou once ranged across Canada’s vast boreal forests, but their populations are now in decline, especially in areas of high disturbance. 

There is also uncertainty in caribou population viability projections. 

This uncertainty is especially important where future development is planned.  Without better information, conservation actions can be delayed. 

To address this, researchers are developing models that combine local disturbance levels and known demographic data to estimate population viability with quantified uncertainty. 

This latest infographic from the Canadian Conservation and Land Management (CCLM) Knowledge Network highlights the findings from the article by Josie Hughes, Sarah Endicott, Anna M. Calvert, and Cheryl A. Johnson, (2025) Integration of national demographic-disturbance relationships and local data can improve caribou population viability projections and inform monitoring decisions

By identifying where and why data gaps exist, we can better protect caribou now – and prepare for what’s ahead.