We used information from the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute (ABMI) on birds, plants, human footprint, and vegetation, plus information from Dr. Bayne on birds, to test a new method for determining cumulative effects on biodiversity in northeast Alberta, Canada. This new method uses as much of the existing information as possible, and incorporates empirical modeling and mapping techniques to highlight changes in wildlife and biota in response to current human footprint (i.e., present cumulative effects), and to predict future cumulative effects as development continues. We tested the new method for a small suite of biodiversity indicators. Cumulative effects assessment for other biotic indicators and for other environmental aspects (e.g., soil, hydrology and air), were beyond the scope of the present project.
Cumulative effects on caribou and black-throated green warbler were higher than those for species groups or biodiversity in general. Caribou was of particular management concern in northeastern Alberta and maps of current habitat suitability for caribou supported this conclusion. Based on Environment Canada’s model for caribou habitat suitability, only 32% of regional study area was currently suitable for caribou use. With continued development, only 15% of the regional study area was expected to provide suitable habitat for caribou 50 years into the future. Maps of habitat suitability provide a strong management tool by highlighting locations that were presently suitable for caribou, and identifying areas where active reclamation of human footprint could be done to increase habitat suitability for caribou. The effectiveness of habitat reclamation for caribou, however, has not been tested and if reclamation is implemented monitoring will be required to determine whether caribou populations recover.